Gartner: AI Won't Kill Jobs but Will Reshape 32m Jobs a Year

Are you worried that AI will take your job?

A new Gartner study suggests perhaps you shouldn’t be, as what is coming isn’t a deadly job apocalypse but a bridgeable chasm of change.

The study predicts that this chaos will set in starting in 2028-29, born of the need to reconfigure and redesign over 32 million jobs each year, to adapt to AI.

“The next era of enterprise performance will not hinge on the quantity of people employed, but on the quality of collaboration between humans and AI,” says Helen Poitevin, Distinguished VP Analyst at Gartner.

“Every day 150,000 jobs will evolve through upskilling, while 70,000 more jobs will need to be rewritten, reworked and redesigned. 

“Executive leaders must plan their AI investments and goals to anticipate and manage these changes. 

“They need to decide on their destination – whether to pursue human-first designs that emphasise supporting people in their work, or to select AI-first designs that aim to maximise efficiency by relying on AI to perform tasks.”

Possible future AI Job scenarios

The first scenario tends more towards automation leading to fewer workers as humans will fill the gap left by AI and do the work that AI is unable to do. 

In this case, work itself remains without significant transformation.

This model can already be seen in customer service, where humans take over where the chat bots end. 

The second scenario is an AI first enterprise, that runs largely autonomously, with very few or no humans. 

Since AI will be taking over the workload, the work will be transformed to adapt to AI. 

The third scenario is an instance of everyday AI, where a large number of human workers use AI to do their work, which otherwise remains the same.

The fourth and the most promising scenario, could lead to human-AI collaboration pushing the boundaries of knowledge.

Humans working with AI, instead of AI doing the work, would mean that humans can go after creative, challenging questions to find solutions to and AI can help us get there. 

“No matter which scenario executive leaders pursue, they must be ready to support all four,” says Poitevin.

“The ripple effects of AI will make each scenario a reality. 

“Leaders need to invest in both types of designs but emphasise on what is possible with AI, embracing an abundance mindset – a mindset whereby AI helps leaders to tackle today and tomorrow’s challenges in new ways.”

AI-first succeeds only if it is people-first

The report says that the goal is not a people free enterprise, but a redefined enterprise where jobs are designed to work with AI. 

Enterprises need to consider how disruptive AI tools are to the workforce and figure out how it can be used for the best advantage. 

In the end, Gartner’s message is less about fear and more about foresight.

The coming years will not see an AI takeover, but a period of transition that will test how adaptable businesses and workers can be.