Gartner: AI-Only Hiring Will Cost Supply Chains by 2030

With global supply chains dealing with persistent disruptions, many organisations are now turning to AI to ease the blows.

While AI is most often used to help firms predict events and automate manual tasks, supply chain businesses are increasingly using the technology to help them with entry-level hiring.

Across planning, sourcing and logistics, AI is being deployed to forecast risk and streamline operations. It is often seen as a cost‑effective response to rising labour and training costs.

Though the short‑term savings look attractive, the long‑term costs could be significant according to new insights from Gartner, the global research and consulting firm.

Replacing recruitment and onboarding with adaptable AI agents can appear efficient. The upfront cost of AI is offset by perceived scaling benefits.

However, removing entry‑level roles risks hollowing out the talent pipeline. The resulting capability gaps surface later when organisations must hire experience they did not grow.

Gartner argues that AI should augment people, not replace the foundation of future teams. The balance between automation and workforce development is now strategic.

Gartner’s warning on entry‑level cuts

Gartner, which advises C‑suite leaders worldwide on AI strategy, cost and risk, examined hiring impacts at its Supply Chain Symposium/Xpo in Orlando. Its analysts cautioned against pausing early‑career recruitment.

By 2030, Gartner warns that 75% of businesses which replace entry‑level hiring with AI in 2026 will face pay premiums. These include a 15% uplift for early‑career professionals.

Simon Bailey, VP Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, says: “Many organisations are attempting to manage uncertainty today by pausing entry‑level hiring, but they will face talent shortages for themselves in the near future.

“AI is not a ‘plug and play’ replacement for people. Organisations that stop hiring and fail to develop early‑career professionals will soon face talent pipeline gaps, employee dissatisfaction and elevated hiring pay premiums, especially for AI‑native talent.” 

What the survey shows about AI and hiring

In a Gartner survey conducted from July to October 2025, using responses from 509 supply chain leaders worldwide, AI’s influence was clear. Most leaders expect AI and agentic AI to be the primary performance drivers over the next three years.

More than half, 55%, anticipate a decline in entry‑level hiring, predominantly due to agentic AI advances. That shift is not only about headcount reduction.

Gartner emphasises human‑AI collaboration, where tools support, augment and automate decision‑making. The target operating model blends human judgement with machine speed.

Organisations that keep developing early‑career talent alongside AI and business skills will benefit most. Senior leaders can then focus on high‑level strategy while AI accelerates analysis and execution.

How CSCOs can protect capability

Gartner recommends that Chief Supply Chain Officers (CSCOs) continue to grow the talent pipeline while scaling AI. The focus should be on capability resilience as much as cost.

Start by mapping where AI changes tasks, roles and skills. Use that view to build new career pathways rather than remove entry‑level on‑ramps.

Then reshape work so learning is continuous and friction is low. Hands‑on teaming around AI tools builds agility and skills readiness.

Gartner advises CSCOs to take four near‑term actions:

• Audit supply chain processes and AI initiatives to understand talent impact and create new pathways
• Redesign workflows and roles to enable continuous learning and reduce friction
• Future‑proof the talent pipeline through learning, coaching, mentoring and AI simulations
• Strengthen the employee value proposition with HR to offset wage pressure and target valued benefits, including work‑life balance.

The takeaway is clear. Prioritising AI over people may look efficient now, but the premium arrives later. The smarter route is a dual investment: build early‑career talent and embed AI across workflows. 

Organisations that do both will avoid pay pressures, sustain robust pipelines and capture more of AI’s upside.