Gartner: How is Geopolitics Shaping Global AI Strategy?

While markets may be “excessively optimistic” about the profit potential of AI according to a forecast from the International Monetary Fund a new survey from Gartner highlights a critical inflection point for CIOs.

The business and technology insights company’s 2026 CIO & Technology Executive Survey which captures data from 2,500 global CIOs and technology executives shows an enterprise landscape eager to spend on AI but increasingly divided by regulation, geopolitics and the growing pressure for return on investment.

According to Gartner’s survey AI and Gen AI investments are increasing with 89% of global CIOs planning to increase AI spend in 2026.

This figure is around 87% for CIOs in Europe. These executives however are balancing ambition with caution as economic pressures and digital sovereignty demands reshape their technology playbook.

The research suggests Western European CIOs report slower movement from AI pilots to scaled deployments which could be due to tighter budgets tougher regulations and the volatile geopolitical climate.

Geopolitics reshaping vendor portfolios

Isolationist currents appear to be more than passing trends.

Gartner’s data shows that 22% of Western European CIOs now expect to reduce their reliance on international tech vendors while 27% are looking to strengthen ties with regional providers.

This indicates a potential shift in how global vendor portfolios are constructed.

“Influenced by the geopolitics of AI CIOs and technology executives should recognise that vendor geography and data sovereignty risks are now viewed by many of their peers as a critical consideration in developing a global vendor portfolio” says Chris Howard Distinguished VP Analyst and Chief of Research at Gartner.

Chris adds that: “This criterion is likely to rise in importance based on growing geopolitical risks and cost pressures.”

The widening transatlantic technology divide

The gap between US and non-US technology executives appears to be widening according to the survey.

The data shows that 50% of CIOs and technology executives outside the US anticipate changes in vendor engagement due to regional factors compared to only 31% of their US-based counterparts.

Among non-US CIOs one in three aim to change focus toward regional tech vendors while just 16% of US CIOs signal a similar move.

This trend could have significant implications for technology providers accustomed to serving a global market.

“All technology vendors but especially those in the US should be aware of this because it is a threat to their ability to serve as ‘vendors of choice’ across a global market” Chris says.

He adds: “This may be the beginning of a change in hegemony that will play out over the coming years.”

From AI pilots to agentic AI ROI

While geopolitics impacts procurement the boardroom focus is on operationalising AI to achieve outcomes and demonstrate value.

The stakes are rising as organisations move beyond initial experimentation.

Kris van Riper Practice Vice President at Gartner, says: “2025 was about AI pilots discovery and experimentation. 2026 will be about delivering agentic AI ROI.”

“Gen AI will continue to be important but agentic AI will soon become the main investment focus. Agentic AI offers a more direct path to business value than previous Gen AI initiatives,” he adds.

However, successfully achieving value from these investments requires internally-developed capabilities across five key value pillars:

• A business-aligned AI roadmap
• Clear and measurable value targets
• Upskilling initiatives for workforce readiness
• Robust data governance practices
• The ability to reprioritise resources

With 64% of technology executives planning to deploy agentic AI over the next 24 months Gartner’s research signals that the window for experimentation is closing.

Execution now rests on a company’s ability to embed AI into its operating backbone. Failure to deliver could mean missing out on the core return-on-investment targets that justify these ambitious technology budgets.

“Technology executives have advanced AI and Gen AI deployments and are now expanding into agentic AI,” Kris says.

She adds: “This progression reflects a strategic focus on leveraging AI’s next frontier for greater impact on operations and customer experience. We are seeing a prioritisation of AI investments which are expected to grow by more than 35% year-over-year.

“This is in the context of a very constrained IT budget environment.”