Citi: Exploring AI's Role in Global Trade Transformation

Global trade is undergoing a significant transformation driven by tariff fluctuations, AI and a continued shift towards multipolar, regionalised supply networks.

That's according to Citi's latest Global Perspectives & Solutions (Citi GPS) report, titled Supply Chain Financing – Durable Global Trade in the Age of AI, which concludes that businesses have demonstrated considerable resilience despite facing substantial challenges – adapting rapidly to policy changes while maintaining strategic priorities around diversification and working capital optimisation.

The report draws on insights from Citi's proprietary Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, payment flow data from the more than US$5tn its Services business processes daily and survey responses from multinational corporations alongside small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Technology's transformative impact

Despite US tariffs rising to approximately 16.8% from 2.4% before the change in US administration, the Index suggests supply chain pressures have remained subdued and close to pre-pandemic levels. Organisations successfully navigated initial tariff disruptions through strategic inventory management, supplier diversification and accelerated nearshoring initiatives.

Elsewhere, Adoniro Cestari, Global Head of Trade and Working Capital at Citi, explains that technology is "fundamentally reengineering how trade finance operates".

"AI-powered intelligent document processing enables exceptionally high accuracy rates and reducing processing to just minutes," he says. "Through a pilot of blockchain-based conditional trade payments, we have seen the potential for an evolution from standard paper-based guarantees to near 24/7 digital execution and automated settlement."

Analysis of goods movement reveals a complex reorganisation of global trade patterns. South Asia and ASEAN have emerged as major beneficiaries, with a 44% increase in shipments from North and East Asia. Latin America has become deeply integrated into both Asia and North America-linked supply chains, with exports to South Asia and ASEAN surging 82%, representing the single largest increase globally.

The US has diversified its import base, with shipments from South Asia and ASEAN rising 50% and from Latin America up 43% – both exceeding the 32% growth from North and East Asia.

Shahmir Khaliq, Head of Services at Citi, says: "Global trade and geopolitics are closely intertwined, with export growth from North and East Asia shifting towards more emerging economies in efforts to diversify customers."

AI infrastructure investment

The report examines how AI is creating what could be a once-in-a-generation capital expenditure supercycle in data centres, with Citi Research estimating US$7.75tn in global AI-related capex by 2030.

Trade finance is playing an increasingly critical role in this ecosystem, with solutions ranging from supply chain finance to structured receivables programmes supporting the complex, capital-intensive nature of AI data centre development.

AI adoption in trade finance has accelerated dramatically, with 36% of large corporates now using AI tools, representing an 18% increase from 2025.

Adoniro adds: "These types of innovations, combined with structuring expertise, helps companies unlock trapped liquidity and optimise working capital while supporting more efficient supply chains and the massive AI infrastructure buildout under way globally."

Working capital optimisation

Working capital management has become a C-suite imperative, with 64% of companies citing increasing input costs as their primary concern. On average, 6.3% of working capital is now tied up in funding tariff costs.

In response, companies are deploying inventory finance, structured receivables programmes and dynamic discounting to release trapped liquidity. Citi's survey of 710 large corporations revealed that 65% are actively diversifying supply chains away from one or more countries, with Vietnam, Thailand, India and Mexico emerging as preferred destinations.

Notably, 46% of survey respondents are planning to rationalise inventory holdings to release liquidity, up from 16% in 2023. Meanwhile, China's share of US imports fell to 8% by late 2025, down from a peak of more than 20% in 2018.

"Disruption is no longer a bug in global trade – it's a feature," continues Adoniro. "Having absorbed a pandemic, conflicts and now a highly-fragmented policy environment, global trade is not in retreat – it is evolving, supported by innovation, investment and operational agility."